Saswat Panigrahi
In a pleasant surprise to the Congress-NCP combine, the ruling alliance has managed to win 145 of the 288 assembly seats in the Maharashtra Assembly election and returned to power for the third successive term. The opposition Shiv Sena-BJP combine saw its worst-ever performance in two decades with its tally reduced to a double digit, a mere 90 seats.
If Congress claims, the victory in Maharashtra is performance driven, it is sadly mistaken. The stark reality is that Congress-NCP combine has won not on the basis of performance, but on the basis of factionalism.
Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) supremo Raj Thackeray has reasons to smile. Wining 13 seats may sound small in a House of 288, but this has led a three-and-a-half-year old MNS to make an inroad into Marathi manoos by successfully cutting into the Sena-BJP alliance votes in its maiden assembly poll foray. Piggy riding on this ‘crucial’ MNS factor the Congress-NCP alliance has bucked a severe anti-incumbency.
The MNS, which contested 143 seats and lost its deposit in 95 of them, has managed to secure a six per cent of vote share. In Mumbai-Thane-Pune stretch, which happens to be the traditional catchment area for BJP-Shiv Sena alliance, MNS’s vote-share is as high as 20 per cent. In Mumbai, MNS has secured a 24 per cent votes, leaving the Sena behind at 18 per cent.
In the country’s financial capital, the MNS won six seats, the second highest after the Congress, which won 17 seats, where as Shiv Sena-BJP alliance together won eight seats down from 13 in the 2004 Assembly poll. The MNS has won three seats in Nashik, two in Thane and one each in Pune and Aurangabad districts. It is pertinent to mention here that the MNS has mauled Sena in its traditional bastion of Lalbaug, Parel Dadar and Mahim (known as Sewri and Mahim after delimitation). This implies Raj Thackeray has skillfully targeted the urban cluster as an investment for his future.
Besides, the MNS has hit the saffron alliance in at least 40 seats across Maharashtra that invariably added to the Congress-NCP kitty. The MNS has not only dented Sena’s vote bank, but also the vote share of NCP in some places as well.
The 41-year old firebrand Raj Thakrey was once considered as the true inheritor of his uncle Balasaheb’s ‘Sainik legacy’. For a long time he headed the Sena’s student wing Bharatiya Vidyathi Sena and carved a fan following. After floating Maharashtra Navnirman Sena, he has aggressively projected the ‘sons of the soil’ brand of politics, albeit in a very parochial way, to walk into vacant space of Shiv Sena. He has appealed to the core instincts of the Shiv Sena far more effectively than Uddhav Thackery has managed to do. This has really worked. The three-and-a-half-year party has diminished an aura surrounding a four-decade-old Shiv Sena. A good number of Maharashtrians known for their loyalty to the Sena switched sides and flocked to MNS flag.
A sharp decline in BJP-Shiv Sena’s tally on the face of an undercurrent of the MNS wave has surprised many. BJP’s tally has been reduced to 46 seats down from 56 and that of Shiv Sena to 44 down from 62 in 2004 Assembly election. But, the ‘crucial’ MNS factor is not entirely responsible for the decline in BJP-Sena showing.
At a time Shiv Sena’s ‘Son’s of soil theory’ was hijacked by the MNS, caught in the vortex of regional demands and its national presence was the BJP. The Sena-BJP combine failed to seize the moment and could not forcefully raise the issues which are plaguing Maharashtra -- unabated farmers suicides, acute power shortage, price rise, infrastructural bottlenecks -- which could have put the ruling alliance on mat. The saffron alliance failed to read the popular pulse and was unable to reach the voters with a message that the decade old Congress-NCP regime had miserable failed to address the gap between Maharashtra’s potential and performance. Perhaps because of its lack of assertiveness to raise the real issues, the Maharashtrians have not taken seriously a ‘people’s centric’ manifesto of BJP-Shiv Sena combine which has sketched a blueprint for development in areas of education, employment, agriculture, rehabilitation, security and infrastructure. In such a political jigsaw the NCP-Congress alliance romped home in the poll by default.
The assembly election result has thrown yet another surprise. The BJP has performed unexpectedly poorly in its own stronghold of Vidarbha region, where Congress has been emerged as the largest party, wining 24 of 62 seats of the region. Interestingly, in Yavatmal district of the region, which is known as the epicenter of famers suicide the Congress-NCP has also performed well. The BJP is yet to figure out what went wrong.
Shiv Sena citadels have crumbled under Raj Thackrey's assault. The poor performance of Sena has put a question mark on Uddhav Thackery's leadership style. The result could trigger a drift by the Shiv Sainiks towards MNS. For the BJP which is struggling to come out of the turmoil following its shocking defeat in the 2009 general election, the result has further dampen its morale.
In a pleasant surprise to the Congress-NCP combine, the ruling alliance has managed to win 145 of the 288 assembly seats in the Maharashtra Assembly election and returned to power for the third successive term. The opposition Shiv Sena-BJP combine saw its worst-ever performance in two decades with its tally reduced to a double digit, a mere 90 seats.
If Congress claims, the victory in Maharashtra is performance driven, it is sadly mistaken. The stark reality is that Congress-NCP combine has won not on the basis of performance, but on the basis of factionalism.
Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) supremo Raj Thackeray has reasons to smile. Wining 13 seats may sound small in a House of 288, but this has led a three-and-a-half-year old MNS to make an inroad into Marathi manoos by successfully cutting into the Sena-BJP alliance votes in its maiden assembly poll foray. Piggy riding on this ‘crucial’ MNS factor the Congress-NCP alliance has bucked a severe anti-incumbency.
The MNS, which contested 143 seats and lost its deposit in 95 of them, has managed to secure a six per cent of vote share. In Mumbai-Thane-Pune stretch, which happens to be the traditional catchment area for BJP-Shiv Sena alliance, MNS’s vote-share is as high as 20 per cent. In Mumbai, MNS has secured a 24 per cent votes, leaving the Sena behind at 18 per cent.
In the country’s financial capital, the MNS won six seats, the second highest after the Congress, which won 17 seats, where as Shiv Sena-BJP alliance together won eight seats down from 13 in the 2004 Assembly poll. The MNS has won three seats in Nashik, two in Thane and one each in Pune and Aurangabad districts. It is pertinent to mention here that the MNS has mauled Sena in its traditional bastion of Lalbaug, Parel Dadar and Mahim (known as Sewri and Mahim after delimitation). This implies Raj Thackeray has skillfully targeted the urban cluster as an investment for his future.
Besides, the MNS has hit the saffron alliance in at least 40 seats across Maharashtra that invariably added to the Congress-NCP kitty. The MNS has not only dented Sena’s vote bank, but also the vote share of NCP in some places as well.
The 41-year old firebrand Raj Thakrey was once considered as the true inheritor of his uncle Balasaheb’s ‘Sainik legacy’. For a long time he headed the Sena’s student wing Bharatiya Vidyathi Sena and carved a fan following. After floating Maharashtra Navnirman Sena, he has aggressively projected the ‘sons of the soil’ brand of politics, albeit in a very parochial way, to walk into vacant space of Shiv Sena. He has appealed to the core instincts of the Shiv Sena far more effectively than Uddhav Thackery has managed to do. This has really worked. The three-and-a-half-year party has diminished an aura surrounding a four-decade-old Shiv Sena. A good number of Maharashtrians known for their loyalty to the Sena switched sides and flocked to MNS flag.
A sharp decline in BJP-Shiv Sena’s tally on the face of an undercurrent of the MNS wave has surprised many. BJP’s tally has been reduced to 46 seats down from 56 and that of Shiv Sena to 44 down from 62 in 2004 Assembly election. But, the ‘crucial’ MNS factor is not entirely responsible for the decline in BJP-Sena showing.
At a time Shiv Sena’s ‘Son’s of soil theory’ was hijacked by the MNS, caught in the vortex of regional demands and its national presence was the BJP. The Sena-BJP combine failed to seize the moment and could not forcefully raise the issues which are plaguing Maharashtra -- unabated farmers suicides, acute power shortage, price rise, infrastructural bottlenecks -- which could have put the ruling alliance on mat. The saffron alliance failed to read the popular pulse and was unable to reach the voters with a message that the decade old Congress-NCP regime had miserable failed to address the gap between Maharashtra’s potential and performance. Perhaps because of its lack of assertiveness to raise the real issues, the Maharashtrians have not taken seriously a ‘people’s centric’ manifesto of BJP-Shiv Sena combine which has sketched a blueprint for development in areas of education, employment, agriculture, rehabilitation, security and infrastructure. In such a political jigsaw the NCP-Congress alliance romped home in the poll by default.
The assembly election result has thrown yet another surprise. The BJP has performed unexpectedly poorly in its own stronghold of Vidarbha region, where Congress has been emerged as the largest party, wining 24 of 62 seats of the region. Interestingly, in Yavatmal district of the region, which is known as the epicenter of famers suicide the Congress-NCP has also performed well. The BJP is yet to figure out what went wrong.
Shiv Sena citadels have crumbled under Raj Thackrey's assault. The poor performance of Sena has put a question mark on Uddhav Thackery's leadership style. The result could trigger a drift by the Shiv Sainiks towards MNS. For the BJP which is struggling to come out of the turmoil following its shocking defeat in the 2009 general election, the result has further dampen its morale.
Good analysis. Very profound. Kanchan Gupta.
ReplyDeleteThank you Sir.
ReplyDelete