Saswat Panigrahi
The Verdict 2009 brought a historic double win for Naveen Patnaik, as his Biju Janata Dal (BJD) swept both the Assembly and Lok Sabha elections. The regional outfit won a staggering 103 and 14 of the 147 assembly and 21 Lok Sabha seats respectively. The Congress came as a distant second with its tally a measly 27 in assembly and six in Lok Sabha. However, the verdict came as a shock and awe for the BJP as the saffron party bite the dust with its tally reduced to a mere six in the Assembly and a cropper in Lok Sabha, bringing the party’s position back to two decades.
The performance of the Congress is easily understood as an anti-Congress wave continues to blow in the State. But the humiliating defeat of the BJP on the face of an undercurrent of Naveen wave has surprised many.
At a time the State BJP is still clueless about its defeat, some leaders say ‘a well panned conspiracy’ was hatched to make the election result one-sided. They attribute ‘large scale EVM tampering’, ‘scientific rigging’, ‘use of black money and muscle power’ by the ruling BJD as the causes for the abysmal performance. But the stark reality, which has been outlined in this election result, was despite four decades of the ‘saffron political movement’ in Orissa (including the Jan Sangh era) the BJP still does not have a mass base in the State.
A few who know the insight out of Orissa’s political history say Late BJP strategist Pramod Mahajan played a crucial role in the formation of BJD, before stitching its alliance with the saffron party. After Biju Patnaik’s demise in April 1997, a sympathy wave was blowing in Orissa in favour of the legendry leader. To cash in on that wave, Mahajan met Biju legacy leaders. Some of them opined to merge the Orissa unit of the Janata Dal with the BJP. But it was Mahajan who proposed to float a party in the name of Biju babu and its alliance with BJP to bring a debacle for the Congress in Orissa, a suggestion the Janata leaders could not but accept. The BJD was formed in December, 1997 and its alliance with the BJP was forged in February 1998. It is said that all initial formative logistics for BJD was provided by the BJP. Biju babu’s son Naveen Patnaik, who since then was elected as a member of 11th Lok Sabha in a by-election following his father’s demise and emerged as an unanimous consensus to lead the party. BJP-BJD coalition was widely acceptable by the masses as Orissa awaited for a change with a Congress regime led by JB Patnaik was marked by mass corruption and which severely compromised State’s development. Riding an anti-Congress wave BJP-BJD coalition swept State elections and Naveen became the CM. But, after coming to power the BJP started doing a political piggy riding and used Naveen as a surrogate. In a decade long BJP-BJD coalition regime, while the BJD was busy in enhancing its mass base, BJP did not bother to strengthen its grass root. A sizable number of BJP leaders distanced themselves from the organisation. Barely a month before the election, when the BJP and BJD parted ways, a ‘cadre mess’ Orissa BJP was walking on its lost path.
Party’s poor organisational position could be attributed as another reason for the defeat. Those who keep track of BJP affairs in Orissa must have known a major change of guard took place after 2004. This resulted in a vertical division in the organisation. The organisation and elected persons were divided into two different polls.
Most of the new guards were not equipped to handle the party affairs and seriously lacked assertiveness to manage the organisation. It was a fact that the old guard had a mass base, which could not be shifted to the new guards. The new guards could not get visible response neither from within the party nor from the public. They were not acceptable either by the Sangh parivar at large or by the BJP sympathisers.
The situation - Cold War like between the old guards and the new guards, which created a negative atmosphere in the rank and file of the party. Knowingly or un-knowingly the network of Sangh was asked to use negatively. The active section of the party was made idle. The division in the organisation, which became wide and open, reflected in the public. This brought confusion amongst the grass root workers, who naturally questioned which side they could stick to. As a result the party cadre was made idle and the real workers felt left out. Hence the Orissa BJP could not come to a work stable condition.
A month before the election, when the BJD broke its ties with the BJP, the saffron party was in search of candidates for number of seats. For many segments the party selected wrong candidates. The two main criteria for candidates’ selection – ability to win and loyalty to the party were brushed aside. Nigh hand-picked candidates featured prominently in party list. At some places the party selected candidates those who were neither primary members, nor from a RSS background nor had a mass base. Some mere party hoppers, simply rejected by other parties, in quest of getting a ticket switched to BJP.
Even during the election the Cold War in the party continued to play its role. Most of those who have experience in poll management were replaced by those who were new to planning and strategy. As a result party’s ‘War room’ was severely mismanaged.
A sizable chunk of BJP candidates were not confident to win elections. Statements like “Orissa BJP is preparing for the 2014 election” by some leaders during the heat and dust of election seriously affected the zeal of the party workers. “If not vote for us, vote for Congress but do not vote for BJD” - some politically immature candidates even went on to campaign - severely went against the party. This writer has seen some poorly attended rally of the saffron party during the election.
Unlike the BJD the saffron party failed to project a ‘real leader.’ Orissa was confused to understand who heads the State unit of BJP, forget about accepting a leader. In such a situation Naveen’s BJD was more acceptable.
The scriptwriters of the saffron party failed to highlight the development initiative, the party had brought in a decade old regime, which it shared with BJD. It is a fact that the BJP has a sizable share in the achievements in the decade-long coalition Government. The Rs 2-a-kg rice scheme could be cited as an example. Orissa Government launched the scheme by the Civil Supplies department headed by a BJP minister. But BJP did not bother to highlight it in the election. On the other hand BJD used the issue to garner vote of the people below poverty line. In Orissa, where food scarcity is a major problem, the ‘politics of rice’ was a major electoral savior for the Naveen led BJD.
In addition to that, in its election campaign, BJD highlighted a number of pro-poor schemes initiated by Orissa Government, in which BJP also had its equal share. The party linked the development initiates with its name and presented its ‘success story’ to the masses, which BJP failed to do.
It was not only its own development initiative which BJP failed to highlight during the election campaign, but also the party did not raise issues which are plaguing Orissa -- Maoist menace, rehabilitation, distress selling of paddy, tribals being squeezed out of their ancestral lands -- which could have taken shape of a strong anti-incumbency against Naveen Patnaik.
In an era of media clutter, where political advertisement plays a major role in shaping the public opinion, Orissa BJP’s advertisement catchlines had nothing different to attract the masses. For example the advertisement “Athera Odisha re BJP aagare (This time in Orissa BJP is ahead) could not explain why the State should vote for BJP.
Intra-party activities, weak organisational position, inability to understand issues and an assertiveness to raise them all paid for the abysmal performance of BJP in Orissa. The result was for everybody to see. The party’s very existence is in serious peril in the face of a victor BJD and a reviving Congress. The result has come as a shock therapy for BJP. To rise as a strong unit, the Orissa BJP has to improve quality, acceptability and capacity. But, can BJP rise in Orissa? If it thinks of a Phoenix like rise, its time to arise and awake.
