Saswat Panigrahi
Politics has an uncanny knack of springing surprises. Did you notice Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik's ‘Third Front’ blabber? In a tone matching new found wisdom, Patnaik went to the media dubbing the Congress-led UPA as ‘discredited’ and ‘corruption ridden’ and BJP-led NDA as ‘communally-tainted’ - thereby justifying the need for a fresh political formulation, maintaining equidistance from the two existing ones.
Patnaik’s statement came amidst the chorus against UPA’s pet project National Counter-Terrorism Centre (NCTC) as non-Congress CMs claimed that it was “a dangerous attempt to destroy the autonomy of the states".
Wild prediction for Naveen
But surprisingly a section of the media projected Patnaik as the new leader on the block and suggested that he could head an upcoming third political alliance. Some imaginations bordered on the wild, predicting Patnaik's pivotal role as the future kingmaker or possibly the king, post 2014 elections.
Well, I know one should not write off anyone in politics. But at the same time the prospect of Patnaik turning out to be the leader of the new front or he becoming the Prime Minister in the process looks outrageous to me at the moment. Having said that let me explain why?
Sample this - Odisha is not the only state to oppose NCTC. There are several states who have opposed any sort of encroachment on the federal structure of our polity. And the list includes BJP CMs too.
Who will go with Naveen?
Patnaik is said to be emerging as the leader of regional political parties on the mere basis of their opposition to NCTC and these include Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, Tamil-Nadu Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa and former Andhra Pradesh CM N Chandrababu Naidu. Except for Naidu, none of the CMs has said anything on the formation of a third front and the possible leader of such a front.
In an era of coalition politics, the role of regional parties, with the right kind of presence in Lok Sabha, will be important in the next elections. Well, if at all Naveen Patnaik is acceptable as the leader of the regional bloc; the question arises as to who will go with him?
Let us examine possible scenarios. First, the names of players who could make or break the third front - If Mayawati-led BSP joins the Naveen-led bloc, Mulayam Singh-led SP would be automatically excluded. In the fifteenth Lok Sabha, the SP has 22 MPs followed by 21 of BSP, whereas the BJD has 14 MPs. (Remember, Odisha has only 21 Lok Sabha constituencies). The numbers may increase or decrease. But in politics numbers decide the rules of the game.
Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) cannot think about going with Naveen Patnaik (despite both sharing good vibes), because the JD(U) needs BJP to run the government in Bihar and this equation is unlikely to change in 2014. If the possibility of JD(U) joining the Naveen camp does not materialise, then there are two other regional players in Bihar - Lalu Prasad Yadav’s RJD and Ram Vilas Paswan’s LJP - who could join the Naveen bloc. Lalu maintains his proximity with the Congress. For Prasad, who has been enduring ‘political unemployment’ for long, it won’t be a bad idea to jump on to the Naveen bandwagon. Ram Vilas Paswan, better known for party hopping, will be more than happy to join the Naveen bloc, hoping for a berth at the Centre.
AIADMK chief Jayalalithaa, an astute politician, is better known as a ‘NDA bird’. But under compulsions, if she decides to join the supposed Naveen-led third front , her political rival M Karunanidhi and DMK would be excluded and vice versa. In a way, BJD-DMK alliance will look good as both are neck deep in scams.
Now, also look at the possibility of some national players joining Naveen’s camp. Naveen Patnaik shares good relationship with the Communists. After Patnaik left the NDA, just before the 2009 elections, CPI(M) politburo member Sitaram Yechury and CPI general secretary AB Bardhan rushed to Bhubaneswar to ink a poll pact with the BJD. The Communists are giving outside support to the BJD government in Odisha despite opposing Patnaik’s mega-industry plank. The Communists would be more than comfortable in joining the Naveen bloc, but that is under ceteris paribus condition. The Left do not see eye to eye with Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress. So if Banarjee joins the Naveen bloc, Communists would be excluded.
Don’t forget that Mamata is a woman for all seasons and can join the block - even at the last minute – if it has the capacity to form government in New Delhi. There could be the possibility of another national party - Sharad Pawar-led NCP – of joining the Naveen-led front. BJD entered into an electoral alliance with the NCP in Odisha during 2009 Assembly elections. The NCP is in coalition with the Congress at the Centre and in Maharashtra. So for instant political benefit, the NCP cannot just risk its relationship with the Congress.
Among the rest of the regional pack, currently out of work TDP chief Chandrababu Naidu could support Naveen. Then there is Ajit Singh-led Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), which Patnaik is likely to welcome to garner some support.
Naveen’s anti-communal bubble
Now comes the question - Will Naveen Patnaik’s ‘anti-communal’ plank cut ice with the people? Remember, the BJD made its political debut with the BJP. And together they ruled Odisha between 2000 and 2009. Even while blasting ‘communal’ BJP, sources indicate that Patnaik has been in constant touch with top saffron leaders for a possible realignment in Odisha and his re-entry to NDA.
Naveen as PM!
While I agree that every citizen with the right kind of support can become the Prime Minister of this country, let’s find out Naveen's chances (as a section of media insists) for the top job.
There is a famous saying – ‘A tree is known by its fruit; a man by his deeds’. Naveen is enjoying the chief ministership for the third term in a row. So what? JB Patnaik was CM of Odisha thrice. Lalu Prasad Yadav ruled Bihar for fifteen-long years. I don’t think winning election is really an index of popularity.
A product of pedigree politics, Naveen achieved political heights overnight. After his father Biju Patnaik’s demise in April 1997, when Janata Dal sought a candidate for Aska Lok Sabha constituency, it was party strategist Bijoy Mohapatra, who brought him from pen to politics. Patnaik retained his father’s citadel with a huge margin, thanks to the sympathy wave blowing in the state in favour of the legendry leader. To cash in on that wave, BJP’s strategist late Pramod Mahajan also met Biju loyalists. They were more than willing to merge the Odisha unit of the Janata Dal with the BJP. But it was Mahajan who proposed the idea to float a party in the name of Biju babu and its alliance with the BJP to bring down the Congress in Odisha, a suggestion the Janata leaders could not but accept.
The Biju Janata Dal (BJD) was formed in December 1997 and its alliance with the BJP was forged in February 1998. It is said that all formative support for the BJD was provided by the BJP. Again it was Mohapatra, who proposed Patnaik’s name to lead the party.
Odisha voted en bloc for the BJP-BJD coalition as the state was waiting for a chance to pack-up the ‘corrupt Congress’. Riding on an anti-Congress wave, BJP-BJD coalition swept the state elections and Naveen became the CM.
The first thing he did after becoming the CM was fire his mentor Bijoy Mohapatra - the man who could have been the king himself. Then Naveen withdrew another BJD founder Dilip Ray first from the union cabinet and then axed him from the party.
Friends of Naveen say that he suffers from paranoia. After over a decade-long coalition with the BJP in Odisha, he ditched the saffron party on the eve of the 2009 polls. The decision was ruthless and surprised many.
With a track record of deception and pretence, Patnaik will always be a suspect among his allies willing to form a third front.
Naveen’s image - Anything but clean
Now, let me touch upon the image Patnaik has. He was once credited with a clean image. But his squeaky clean image was blown to pieces once the mining scam broke. As the Pandora's Box opened, it became evident as to how his government had allowed mineral smugglers to plunder Odisha to the tune of Rs 3 lakh crores, giving birth to the biggest scam in independent India’s history. Soon more skeletons tumbled out of the closet.
It was Naveen’s BJD government which illegally allotted as much as 6,000 acre of three-crop agricultural land - including 1,300 acre belonging to Lord Jagannath Temple - for the proposed dubious Vedanta university project in Puri-Konark marine drive. Odisha Lokpal indicted the Patnaik government for illegal land allotment. The biggest land grab scam in independent India was waiting to happen in the state. Thanks to Orissa High Court, the project was shelved. Then Vedanta’s proposed bauxite mining project in Niyamgiri was cancelled, following NC Saxena report. The report indicted the BJD government again.
The saga of corruption in Naveen Patnaik government does not end here. Apart from mining scam and the two Vedanta scams, the BJD government is involved in dal scam, coal scam and rural job scam - the list goes on.
Patnaik government is highly unpopular for its ‘mega industry’ plank. By allowing industries at the cost of livelihood of the people, the BJD government has made industries the beneficiary and the state a looser.
Odisha has not forgotten the Kalinganagar massacre of January 2006, where poor Tribals demanding compensation for their lost land received bullets in return.
From Kalinganagar to Kandhamal, Tribals are being squeezed out of their ancestral land. Patnaik is being branded as anti-famer, anti-poor and anti-tribal.
Recently the state witnessed a hooch tragedy, which claimed 40 lives ahead of the Panchayat polls. Those who died after consuming the toxic ‘election brand’ liquor were the poorest of the poor. But this did not affect the electoral performance of Patnaik’s BJD as the party swept the Panchayat polls, thanks to the poor opposition forces in Odisha.
Patnaik might have won few elections in a row, but I must say that as a CM he has totally failed to address the gap between Odisha’s potential and performance. The people of Odisha are now bored with his perennial ‘central apathy’ rhetoric.
As if Manmohan Singh isn’t enough, do we need another non-performing PM?
Post script: Patnaik is also opposed to the proposed amendment by the Centre of the Railway Protection Force (RPF) Act. He is again being projected as the one leading the attack against the Centre. It should be noted that Naveen’s opposition to RPF Act came days after Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi registered his opposition.
It seems unlikely that a man who could not learn the language of the state he rules will be acceptable by the heavily rooted Nitish Kumar, Jayalalithaa, Mamata Banerjee...
Appeared in my blog ‘The Right Way’ in Zeenews.com
http://zeenews.india.com/blog/66/blog732.html
Saturday, March 10, 2012
Wednesday, March 7, 2012
Verdict Uttarakhand is full of surprises
Saswat Panigrahi
The seesaw battle in the hilly state of Uttarakhand ended in a photo finish. Finally, the Congress was narrowly ahead of BJP, but still failed to get a simple majority.
The Congress has won 32 seats and BJP won 31 out of the 70 Assembly constituencies. Three seats went in BSP’s kitty and others won 4.
In this case, the picture is still unclear who will form the next government in the state. At this point in time, it looks like government formation is within the grasp of the Congress. Out of the four independents, three are Congress rebels. If Congress manages to win over the independents, the party is still falling sort of one seat. In that case it has to take the support of BSP to stake claim to form the next government. In addition, Uttarakhad has the provision of nominating one MLA from the Anglo-Indian community by the party which forms the government.
But at least the picture is clear – Uttarkhand has voted for a hung Assembly.
This election has thrown up a number of surprises. The biggest surprises came from the BJP. Chief Minister BC Khanduri lost Kotdwar Assembly constituency to SS Negi of the Congress by 4,632 votes, thanks to the sabotage from within the party. Remember Exit polls conducted by five news channels projected Khanduri as the most popular Chief Minister in the poll-bound states. Doesn’t matter. Honest people always find it difficult in politics.
The election outcome has proved all Exit poll predictions wrong. A majority of the Exit polls had shown that Congress has an edge over BJP in Uttarakhand. Out of the five Exit polls, four had predicted that the Congress as the clear winner. Only one Exit poll projected the BJP as the winner. But not a single Exit poll turned out to be true.
But what went wrong for the BJP? Under General Khanduri’s leadership, Uttarakhand enacted two landmark anti-graft legislations – the Lokayukta Bill and the Right to Public Services legislation. Uttarkhand is the first state in the country to bring a strong and effective Lokayukta Bill. But the anti-graft legislations could not converted into desired number of votes to win the Assembly elections.
In this Assembly election, the BJP was not only fighting against Congress, but it was a “fight within” for the saffron party as well. It may look little difficult to decipher, in case of BJP, there was a tough fight between Khanduri’s anti-corruption agenda and Nishank’s corruption saga. And finally it was the Nishank’s corruption saga which was the winner.
It was Khanduri who had led the party to victory in the 2007 Assembly elections and was subsequently chosen as the Chief Minister. However, he was booted out after the party performed poorly in the 2009 general election. Marred with internal dissent, amid the growing ‘Remove Khanduri’ chorus, he quit taking responsibility for the poll debacle.
Ramesh Pokhariyal ‘Nishank’ was inducted as the Chief Minister. But Nishank’s tenure had pushed the saffron party to the wall amid allegations of a series of scams. A couple of months before the Assembly elections, the BJP central leadership replaced Khanduri as Chief Minister in a tearing hurry to salvage the party’s sagging image in the state.
Khanduri tried to clean up the mess done by his predecessor. After taking over as the Chief Minister for the second time, Khanduri had done enough for BJP to bring it back in a fighting mode. Thanks to Khanduri, the BJP managed to salvage its prestige by giving a tough fight to Congress. But that did not work to the hilt of winning the election.
It is the BJP which needs to be blamed for its own defeat. It was wrong to remove Khanduri as the Chief Minister in the first place. Second, it was a blunder to induct Nishank as Chief Minister. Third, it was too late to re-induct Khanduri. It was the dithering attitude of the BJP central leadership which proved to be a bane for the saffron party. The saffron party has to do a lot of atma chintan (introspection).
But why did Congress manage a water-thin edge over the BJP? Can the anti-corruption babble against Nishank regime be attributed for making Congress the single largest party? Don’t forget that as a matter of fact, as many as 70 scams from the ND Tiwari rule are still haunting the Congress. Or it is the internal squabbling in the state BJP which indirectly benefited the Congress?
-- Appeared in Zeenews.com
http://zeenews.india.com/state-elections-2012/uttarakhand/verdict-uttarakhand-is-full-of-surprises_762491.html
The seesaw battle in the hilly state of Uttarakhand ended in a photo finish. Finally, the Congress was narrowly ahead of BJP, but still failed to get a simple majority.
The Congress has won 32 seats and BJP won 31 out of the 70 Assembly constituencies. Three seats went in BSP’s kitty and others won 4.
In this case, the picture is still unclear who will form the next government in the state. At this point in time, it looks like government formation is within the grasp of the Congress. Out of the four independents, three are Congress rebels. If Congress manages to win over the independents, the party is still falling sort of one seat. In that case it has to take the support of BSP to stake claim to form the next government. In addition, Uttarakhad has the provision of nominating one MLA from the Anglo-Indian community by the party which forms the government.
But at least the picture is clear – Uttarkhand has voted for a hung Assembly.
This election has thrown up a number of surprises. The biggest surprises came from the BJP. Chief Minister BC Khanduri lost Kotdwar Assembly constituency to SS Negi of the Congress by 4,632 votes, thanks to the sabotage from within the party. Remember Exit polls conducted by five news channels projected Khanduri as the most popular Chief Minister in the poll-bound states. Doesn’t matter. Honest people always find it difficult in politics.
The election outcome has proved all Exit poll predictions wrong. A majority of the Exit polls had shown that Congress has an edge over BJP in Uttarakhand. Out of the five Exit polls, four had predicted that the Congress as the clear winner. Only one Exit poll projected the BJP as the winner. But not a single Exit poll turned out to be true.
But what went wrong for the BJP? Under General Khanduri’s leadership, Uttarakhand enacted two landmark anti-graft legislations – the Lokayukta Bill and the Right to Public Services legislation. Uttarkhand is the first state in the country to bring a strong and effective Lokayukta Bill. But the anti-graft legislations could not converted into desired number of votes to win the Assembly elections.
In this Assembly election, the BJP was not only fighting against Congress, but it was a “fight within” for the saffron party as well. It may look little difficult to decipher, in case of BJP, there was a tough fight between Khanduri’s anti-corruption agenda and Nishank’s corruption saga. And finally it was the Nishank’s corruption saga which was the winner.
It was Khanduri who had led the party to victory in the 2007 Assembly elections and was subsequently chosen as the Chief Minister. However, he was booted out after the party performed poorly in the 2009 general election. Marred with internal dissent, amid the growing ‘Remove Khanduri’ chorus, he quit taking responsibility for the poll debacle.
Ramesh Pokhariyal ‘Nishank’ was inducted as the Chief Minister. But Nishank’s tenure had pushed the saffron party to the wall amid allegations of a series of scams. A couple of months before the Assembly elections, the BJP central leadership replaced Khanduri as Chief Minister in a tearing hurry to salvage the party’s sagging image in the state.
Khanduri tried to clean up the mess done by his predecessor. After taking over as the Chief Minister for the second time, Khanduri had done enough for BJP to bring it back in a fighting mode. Thanks to Khanduri, the BJP managed to salvage its prestige by giving a tough fight to Congress. But that did not work to the hilt of winning the election.
It is the BJP which needs to be blamed for its own defeat. It was wrong to remove Khanduri as the Chief Minister in the first place. Second, it was a blunder to induct Nishank as Chief Minister. Third, it was too late to re-induct Khanduri. It was the dithering attitude of the BJP central leadership which proved to be a bane for the saffron party. The saffron party has to do a lot of atma chintan (introspection).
But why did Congress manage a water-thin edge over the BJP? Can the anti-corruption babble against Nishank regime be attributed for making Congress the single largest party? Don’t forget that as a matter of fact, as many as 70 scams from the ND Tiwari rule are still haunting the Congress. Or it is the internal squabbling in the state BJP which indirectly benefited the Congress?
-- Appeared in Zeenews.com
http://zeenews.india.com/state-elections-2012/uttarakhand/verdict-uttarakhand-is-full-of-surprises_762491.html
Sunday, March 4, 2012
Will Khanduri prove poll pundits wrong?
Saswat Panigrahi
A majority of the exit polls conducted by various television news channels show that Congress has an edge over BJP in Uttarakhand. Out of the five exit polls, four have predicted that the BJP could win between 22 to 30 seats in the Uttarakhand Assembly elections. Only one exit poll projected the saffron party as the winner, predicting 39 seats for it.
If the result goes the majority way, it will be a huge setback for the saffron party.
But how was BJP placed in the last elections? Let’s flip through some quick electoral statistics.
Uttarakhand has 70 Assembly constituencies. The state has witnessed two Assembly elections so far. In the 2007 Assembly elections, the BJP won 36 seats, whereas its main opponent Congress managed to win 21, thanks to the ant-incumbency factor against the ND Tiwari-led Congress government. In the 2002 Assembly elections, BJP had won 19 seats and Congress 36. The BJP had lost power because of the anti-incumbency against Bhagat Singh Koshiyari-led interim government.
Uttarakhand has voted out incumbent governments in the two Assembly elections is has had so far.
But this time there was widespread speculation that General BC Khanduri would scrape through despite anti-incumbency. Many said it was a battle, not so tough for General Khanduri.
It was Khanduri who had led the party to victory in 2007 elections and was subsequently chosen as the Chief Minister. However, he was booted out after the party performed poorly in the 2009 general election (the BJP had lost all five Lok Sabha seats to Congress). Marred with internal dissent, amid the growing ‘Remove Khanduri’ chorus, he quit taking responsibility for the poll debacle. Ramesh Pokhariyal ‘Nishank’ was inducted as the Chief Minister. But Nishank’s tenure had pushed the saffron party to the wall amid allegations of a series of scams. A couple of months before the Assembly elections, the BJP central leadership replaced Khanduri as Chief Minister in a tearing hurry to salvage the party’s sagging image in the state.
Khanduri tried to clean up the mess done by his predecessor and put BJP back in a fighting mode. Within two months of taking over as the Chief Minister for the second time, he enacted two landmark anti-graft legislations – the Lokayukta Bill and the Right to Public Services legislation. The BJP tried to cash in on the “clean image” of Khanduri to sail through the Assembly elections.
With Khanduri back in the saddle, BJP made fight against corruption a major poll plank in this election. But the corruption from Nishank’s tenure was also haunting the BJP in the polls.
The reality was that in this Assembly election, the BJP was not only fighting against Congress, but it was a “fight within” as well.
There were two factors -- Khanduri’s anti-corruption agenda and Nishank’s corruption -- which had to decide BJP’s fate in Uttarakhand.
Congress’ anti-corruption babble against BJP won’t be much of a factor. As a matter of fact, as many as 70 scams from the ND Tiwari rule are still haunting the Congress.
So, will Khanduri’s anti-corruption agenda win over Nishank’s corruption saga? And if that happens, General Khanduri will certainly prove the poll pundits wrong. So wait for March 06 for the final verdict. And if it goes the other way it is the BJP which needs to be blamed.
-- Appeared in Zeenews.com
http://zeenews.india.com/state-elections-2012/uttarakhand/will-khanduri-prove-poll-pundits-wrong_762133.html
A majority of the exit polls conducted by various television news channels show that Congress has an edge over BJP in Uttarakhand. Out of the five exit polls, four have predicted that the BJP could win between 22 to 30 seats in the Uttarakhand Assembly elections. Only one exit poll projected the saffron party as the winner, predicting 39 seats for it.
If the result goes the majority way, it will be a huge setback for the saffron party.
But how was BJP placed in the last elections? Let’s flip through some quick electoral statistics.
Uttarakhand has 70 Assembly constituencies. The state has witnessed two Assembly elections so far. In the 2007 Assembly elections, the BJP won 36 seats, whereas its main opponent Congress managed to win 21, thanks to the ant-incumbency factor against the ND Tiwari-led Congress government. In the 2002 Assembly elections, BJP had won 19 seats and Congress 36. The BJP had lost power because of the anti-incumbency against Bhagat Singh Koshiyari-led interim government.
Uttarakhand has voted out incumbent governments in the two Assembly elections is has had so far.
But this time there was widespread speculation that General BC Khanduri would scrape through despite anti-incumbency. Many said it was a battle, not so tough for General Khanduri.
It was Khanduri who had led the party to victory in 2007 elections and was subsequently chosen as the Chief Minister. However, he was booted out after the party performed poorly in the 2009 general election (the BJP had lost all five Lok Sabha seats to Congress). Marred with internal dissent, amid the growing ‘Remove Khanduri’ chorus, he quit taking responsibility for the poll debacle. Ramesh Pokhariyal ‘Nishank’ was inducted as the Chief Minister. But Nishank’s tenure had pushed the saffron party to the wall amid allegations of a series of scams. A couple of months before the Assembly elections, the BJP central leadership replaced Khanduri as Chief Minister in a tearing hurry to salvage the party’s sagging image in the state.
Khanduri tried to clean up the mess done by his predecessor and put BJP back in a fighting mode. Within two months of taking over as the Chief Minister for the second time, he enacted two landmark anti-graft legislations – the Lokayukta Bill and the Right to Public Services legislation. The BJP tried to cash in on the “clean image” of Khanduri to sail through the Assembly elections.
With Khanduri back in the saddle, BJP made fight against corruption a major poll plank in this election. But the corruption from Nishank’s tenure was also haunting the BJP in the polls.
The reality was that in this Assembly election, the BJP was not only fighting against Congress, but it was a “fight within” as well.
There were two factors -- Khanduri’s anti-corruption agenda and Nishank’s corruption -- which had to decide BJP’s fate in Uttarakhand.
Congress’ anti-corruption babble against BJP won’t be much of a factor. As a matter of fact, as many as 70 scams from the ND Tiwari rule are still haunting the Congress.
So, will Khanduri’s anti-corruption agenda win over Nishank’s corruption saga? And if that happens, General Khanduri will certainly prove the poll pundits wrong. So wait for March 06 for the final verdict. And if it goes the other way it is the BJP which needs to be blamed.
-- Appeared in Zeenews.com
http://zeenews.india.com/state-elections-2012/uttarakhand/will-khanduri-prove-poll-pundits-wrong_762133.html
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